The highpoint in the Ukrainian crisis and the big visits by Nuland to Moscow and Austin to Kiev might actually be attempts by Washington to make lemons out of lemonade, Tim Kirby writes.
The Mainstream Media Eye of Sauron has turned its horrid gaze to the Ukraine. This is always cause for concern because it indicates that this is what the elites want America to be focusing on. This would not be so much of a problem if this growing game of chicken in the Donbass did not resemble a Cuban Missile Crisis for the 21st century. The Mainstream Media’s headlines read of warnings to Russia not to attack, and move their own troops away from the border within their own territory for the sake of peace, while at the same time pumping up Kiev with support-based confidence to do just that – escalating the war in the Donbass towards a potential apocalyptic scenario. Since Moscow has already handed out citizenship to the residents of the breakaway republics and even given their leaders party membership into Putin’s dominant United Russia, along with executing many forms of bureaucratic “integration” the Donbass, we can clearly see that the region is de facto Russian again.
This means that a massive attack from Kiev, would be met by a full force response from Moscow, the “Russianness” of the region has now become essentially non-negotiable – “not one step back” can be taken as Stalin put it. With so many “instructors” and other assets from NATO working with Kiev it is overwhelmingly likely that a Russian counterattack to any offensive would kill some foreign troops. It could also hit the quietly unhidden network of American supported bio-labs that are spread throughout the country, the contents of which are of critical interest to the Department of Defense. This may sound hard to believe so you can watch this video and decide for yourself.
This scenario is looking like a very dry powder keg just waiting for a spark to start WWIII, Kiev looks like it will launch a foolhardy attack believing it will be supported by NATO just like Saakashvili did in 2008 only this time, the West may just actually give them the proper support they desire, leading to a worst case scenario of a direct confrontation of Cowboys vs. Bears. That is how the scenario looks, especially inside the Russian political analysis sphere, but things are not always what they seem.
It was not that long ago when we were sitting on the exact same cusp of nuclear annihilation. When Biden took office, all the experts within Russia, people on the ground in the Donbass and a few key players (that I know personally) were all sure that this was going to be “the big one”. They unanimously put their chips down on the idea that Biden’s support would be all that is needed to allow for a genocidal campaign to be waged on the Donbass while Moscow accepted its second-tier status watching their people be massacred. Or even worse, if Moscow would have protected the Donbass then we’d all be dead right now. But, despite the hype and expert\insider opinions, nothing happened. Absolutely nothing happened. There was no massive assault and the status quo was maintained.
So is this WWIII scare somehow different from the previous one from about a year ago? If we all remember correctly, Biden’s ascension to the throne was rather contested and the near future of even America looked a bit blurry – it was not a good moment to greenlight Kiev’s war plans. And probably even more relevant, we cannot forget that the grand resource sinkhole that was the War in Afghanistan is now over, freeing up a lot of men and means to look elsewhere. Biden even said in his now historic speech at the end of the war that nation-building was over, but that other Hard Power and especially Soft Power weapons of U.S. Foreign Policy were still on the table. Now, apparently it is Russia’s turn to face the brunt of their impact. Washington has had the peace it needed in order to turn its focus onto again trying to break the Russians. The most popular sport within the Beltway.
On the other hand, as time goes on the Fed keeps printing hyperinflation levels of dollars, problems at home are growing and the Global Hegemon’s throne seems to be very wobbly. Unlike the doom-and-gloom apocalyptic types that seem to dominate the Alternative Media, who almost salivate with glee at the opportunity to live through the end of the world, it is my personal belief that what we are seeing from Washington’s actions in the Ukraine are perhaps a negotiation strategy that is being masked.
As I have written before, even within the Beltway it is becoming apparent that the Multipolar World Order has won, but the shape of that World Order is certainly up for debate, negotiation, or even a fight. If we were to try to “wargame out” scenarios for America to remain a winner on a globe with competing powers, then now would probably be a good time to work out deals regarding these potential new spheres of influence. We could right now be at some sort of the Yalta moment in the dying days of the Monopolar World.
In fact, if this card was not on the table then NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wouldn’t have had to publicly denounce the idea of Russia having a sphere of influence. This statement echoes the same logic as the expression “punk’s not dead”. If punk music were still vibrant and alive no one would have to try to convince us otherwise with a catchy phrase printed on their t-shirt. So Russia having “no right” to a sphere of influence means that Russia is gaining or already possesses a sphere of influence. No one had to say such things during the Yeltsin period. Interestingly, Putin recently told NATO that he wants a guarantee from them excluding further expansion, which is basically a call for finalizing a deal regarding borders, buffer zones and spheres of influence going deeper into our lovely 21st century.
If Washington today works out a deal for the layout of the Multipolar World it is being drug into the agreement could work out to be pretty sweet, giving America the lion’s share of the globe. Risking it and kicking this can ten or twenty years down the road could yield far poorer results as at this point in time the Russians would be very happy to take what would look like a terrible deal to historians hundreds of years from now. The Mainstream Media lies about Russia’s obsession with some sort of expansionism are false, they want some (but not all) of their old territory back that they feel was stolen from them during the “greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”. They would also like to get American Soft Power the hell out of their country (excluding Hollywood Movies and video games) for good and they would be willing to sign off on an awful deal to just make sure that they can have the stability and sovereignty they need to survive.
Some territories are ultimately non-negotiable and the Russians will never give up until they can reintegrate them…
- The break-away republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria
- The territory of today’s Ukrainian east and south of the Dnieper river also known as Malorossiya or “Little Russia” as it is sometimes translated.
Some regions would be nice to have come back home but could at least benefit Russia as being within their sphere of influence.
- Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan
- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
The Russians would willingly give up on Europe almost entirely, even including the Baltic States to get back the parts of the Ukraine that are an inalienable chunk of their society. That should suit Washington quite well. Kyrgyzstan has been probably the least racist Central Asian nation towards Russians, but they are cut off by questionable Kazakhstan that could turn into a Maidan style regime any day. In order to keep Kazakhstan sane and Kyrgyzstan close, Moscow may be willing to give up on everything else in Central Asia. The Caucasus Mountains are a lovely natural border and perhaps slick American negotiating skills could keep Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan permanently out of Russia’s grasp. Although this is now tougher after the resolution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Getting almost all of Europe, half of Central Asia and possibly the entire southern half of the Caucasus Mountains while being able to use media spin to project the Russian boogeyman as an eternal cause to raise military budgets should sound good to an America in decline. This is actually a great deal for Russia short term, America in the long term, and anyone who does not want to personally live through a nightmare WWIII scenario.
So, perhaps this highpoint in the Ukrainian crisis, and the big visits by Nuland to Moscow and Austin to Kiev are actually attempts by Washington to make lemons out of lemonade. We Americans are better at this than anyone else on the planet after all. This is not the time to go out and put money down on a fallout shelter but to instead enjoy the media spin that is coming that will try to obfuscate the realities of the dealings between Moscow and Washington to keep up appearances that we are still in a Monopolar World that needs more and more money being thrown to the military industrial complex. Perhaps cooler heads have already prevailed, it just doesn’t look that way on the surface.