Well wishing and power fantasies cannot topple geopolitical realities and the fact that Washington will simply never let a Texit take place.
There is an interesting tendency in American political history that whenever there is some sort of crisis, one answer to it, especially from the Right, is some form of secession. The waves of Liberal triumphant ecstasy that Obama rode into the White House were scary enough to start discussions of leaving the Union from Ohio to Oregon. During the 1990s it was the scary militias of places like Michigan that were supposedly going to fight for some sort of breakaway from the tyranny of Clinton. None of this came to pass and the only semi-successful attempt to do something like this required the support of the entire political and economic elite of the South, with a very heavy economic dependence on a “peculiar institution” to even try. But for some reason this naive power fantasy of being able to simply break away from the evil grip of Washington, gaining everything, yet somehow losing nothing just will not die. And so, now there is discussion of an imminent “Texit”. This time though the strategy is going to use a long term bureaucratic roadmap and vastly more signatures, stamps and red tape in order to ultimately fail.
Brexit is a False Narrative
This new term Texit comes from the “success” of the Brexit movement that sort of got the UK out of the EU to some extent. The glowing positive side of Brexit, is the fact that things were done absolutely peacefully via referendum and very slowly bureaucratic processes. Although the drudging seemingly endless path of Brexit was very annoying for those who advocated it, having lots of time to play with, allowed for things to happen more gently and with less economic consequences. If they would have just put up barbed wire and machine gun nests on the British side of the Chunnel the day after voting, the economic impact would have been a lot more severe. For us commoners we want politics to be exciting and full of triumphant victories towards a better tomorrow, but the reality is that sometimes slow and steady wins the race. No matter what the anti Brexit crowd says, Britain’s economy has not crumbled or suffered some sort of fatal wound due to leaving the EU. Essentially a soft secession, at least in the context of the EU, is now proven to be pleasantly survivable, at least for a major player like the British.
It is probably this particular safer softer bureaucratic approach that appeals to those who understand paper dancing most intimately – local politicians. From their standpoint, why not try to slowly break Texas away from impending death from Socialism/Globalism, but in a rainbows and kittens peaceful way? Brexit required no guns nor blood, simply lots of time and stamps, this looks very spiffy in contrast to blood soaked Civil War 2.0.
If the British could leave without collapsing, why can’t the Lone Star State? Everything is bigger (and better) in Texas right?
The issue is that for pencil pushers the Brexit narrative looks attractive but ultimately this narrative is false. England was not able to lead some sort of massive Conservative or Nationalist revolution by gentle means. Yes, the Union Jack was taken down at the EU parliament, and in theory Brussels cannot suck more resources from across the English Channel at will, but ultimately the UK remains in NATO, completely philosophically dominated by extreme Progressive Liberals, and is not going to reforge “The Empire” any time soon. All of the pre-Brexit issues not related to tax that have been slowly destroying English culture and nationhood are still very much in place, but taxes are lower so that’s nice.
The UK is not truly independent, Brexit or not. The real test of a nation’s independence in a Monopolar world is if it can (or at least tries) to pursue policies that go against the desires of the Hegemon (Washington). So far we have yet to see a post Brexit UK try to work the Russians or Chinese against Washington or assert its interests over those of America’s anywhere on the globe. The Brits are not players in a “great game” at the moment, they have just adjusted the flavour of their vassal status. This Brexit narrative is something to note, something of interest, but it is not a “proof of concept” for Texas.
The collapse of the USSR is realistic a model for Texas
We should be impressed that local politicians in America were actually aware of an event that happened overseas. This level of worldliness is rare, but sadly if they were to look just a bit further east they would see the potential nightmare that can happen even if they were to succeed in leaving the United States on “peaceful” terms.
Despite the fact that 77% of the populace voted to save but reform the Soviet Union, it was broken up by pen strokes hidden in the forests at the very western edge of the empire. What ensued was a nightmare scenario of starvation, collapse and untold small military conflicts. Many of the chunks of the USSR felt quite confident in their ability to stand on their own as part of a great Red Civilization, but the second it fell apart they quickly had to fight to survive and quickly realized just how small and helpless their nations were without big daddy Moscow. To this day all the Former Soviet Republics remain poor irrelevant territories whose only purpose in their existence is to antagonize Russia and challenge the spelling skills of their Washington masters with their unpronounceable last names.
Texas is big and has a very vibrant culture, but it has far more value as a part of American Civilization than as a Texan nation. This is much in the same way that Armenia, Georgia, the Ukraine etc. were vastly more relevant as part of Russian/Soviet Civilization, than as forgettable blips on the global radar. Within Russia everyone can at least recognize Armenian script, knows the name of those big Ukrainian red trousers they like and can determine what is Georgian cuisine. As “independent” nations they are culturally non-existent globally except for those twerps who accidentally bought the wrong “Georgian” flags to the Capitol Hill protests. Even if Texas would be allowed to slowly nudge its way out of the Union by some sort of Texit its destiny will look much more like a Former Soviet Republic in the 90’s than their mythical Brexit narrative.
The geopolitics of Texas are dismal
If Texas were to become independent it would find itself surrounded by 3 different spaces. The first being the land border with the rest of America, who would be very hostile to the breakaway republic and very willing to put the economic screws to them. The United States has brought misery to many places across the globe with embargoes, sanctions and blockades. We shouldn’t be so naive to think they wouldn’t do it to a naughty Texas. The second space would be the Gulf of Mexico which is essentially dominated by the U.S. Navy. Texans would have to say goodbye to goods from China, unless they could get them via Mexico. Blocking off Texas from the rest of the world is very realistic and this enforced isolation will change the shining big cities of the state into dim impoverished Capitalist copies of North Korea in terms of economy.
The third and most important space is the border with Mexico. If the Mexicans were not under the thumb of Washington, this could be a potential “way out” for an independent Texas, to get access to the world’s goods. But as it stands today Mexico City will always side with Washington when it counts. meaning that Texit would lead to a new nation being born that is completely cut off from the rest of the world. It would not only have to economically fight against the Global Hegemon but would start life surrounded by it on all sides to be consumed and digested like a longhorn steak. Texas is big, it has a diverse landscape, but maintaining an economy with guns pointed at you from every direction will not exactly be easy.
The geopolitics of America, being far away, surrounded by oceans with only underpopulated Canada and submissive Mexico at the borders is a huge boon to American stability. Well wishing and power fantasies cannot topple geopolitical realities and the fact that Washington will simply never let a Texit take place. The politicians advocating this position should understand that if they go forward with this Texas will gain geopolitical realities worse than those of North Korea. Furthermore, any Texan politician who will seriously put forward legislation for a referendum or soft exit process is likely to decide “to take their own life” as often happens with people who disagree with certain U.S. policies. The people advocating for Texit are naive, they have no idea what they’re actually getting into and just how bad things will be even if they succeed.