What was really behind Trump’s colossal climb-down over the drone fiasco? Or indeed the tanker attack before that? While it may be true that he was genuinely affected by intelligence reports which showed that Iran’s firebrand military leader was actually angry with the commander in question who ordered the drone attack, it is much more likely that US media itself – which Trump loves, loathes and is addicted to all in one – had the major affect on his decision not to retaliate with air strikes.
No one is buying the claim that he cares how many deaths it would result in although he may well have asked. This logic is self-defeating and illogical and makes him look weak and indecisive regardless. If he doesn’t have the stomach for 150 dead soldiers of the enemy then how can he possibly retain any credit as being a commander-in-chief when he patently couldn’t even cope with ten US body bags in comparison.
The US TV commentator Tucker Carslon’s comments about a war with Iran must have made an impact as the president’s vanity is as endless as his self-deprecating insecurity. Trump is a child. And children change their minds every five minutes and amuse adults who waste their time trying to apply logic or seek out behavioral patterns to their capricious mannerisms.
Trump has realized that even he hasn’t the guts for war with Iran, which would create a bloodbath in the Middle East and result in many, many American and Israeli deaths in the region – which is going to be hard to explain to his core voters who don’t want any intervention in the Middle East anyway. It may well even end up with him losing his 2020 re-election bid.
But what is truly interesting is how Americans are so naïve and ill-informed and are repeatedly led into wars which they neither want nor understand. And how this situation, which we can certainly call a real crisis, has come about by an earlier crisis in confidence between groups of countries in the world who didn’t normally trust one another. The Trump affect, which has led to America losing confidence with most of the world’s big players, has also led to a lack of confidence and trust elsewhere. A total collapse of confidence in international deals struck – and how much weight they hold – came about almost entirely by Trump shocking the world and pulling the US out of the so-called ‘Iran Deal’. This placed an enormous amount of pressure on a newly forged alliance of the members of that same deal, like a whole new relationship between the EU and Iran.
But what we have seen in recent days with the tanker and drone attacks is that even the EU’s credibility as a global broker of peace or commerce has been shattered by Trump. Pundits like to talk about how Brussels is doing all it can to build a special payment facility for companies which wish to trade with Iran but this has taken so long to even put together on paper, and even if it were to be launched would have little effect on Iran as big international firms would not use it anyway.
Just recently Russia stepped forward and offered to provide Iran with an alternative facility for looking to bypass the US sanctions on oil which prevents big payers like Japan, South Korea and India from buying oil from Iran. If that is to happen soon, it will be like a final nail in the coffin for Trump’s gamble in Iran. Game over. Iran will do the very thing which keeps Pentagon chiefs awake at night – the same thing which EU chiefs worry that Britain will do with its standoff with Brussels: survive.
Survival, via help from Russia, will destroy any remaining credibility both the EU (and Europe multilaterally) has on the world stage with such international treaties aimed at creating world peace. Yet it also will throw the spotlight on a bigger failure which is US-EU relations which have hit an all time low with Trump’s bellicose, if not juvenile style towards dealing with frenemies.
Ironically it is these poor relations, which could be a savior to Trump now and pull him out of the hole he has dug for himself with Iran. It’s not only that he looks weak in their eyes. Much worse is that this is actually the case. The Iran crisis is entirely about a mother of all inferiority complexes that Trump has with Obama. It really is all about making a churlish point against the former US President who believed that the US tensions really could be resolved by cutting some slack to Iran and hoping they invest in infrastructure and education and eased off regional intervention. That was a naïve idea as well but we should never forget that the JCPOA which Obama signed off at least prevented nuclear arms being built by Tehran and would never have placed it in the position it is in now – poised to start a world war with the US with a President who is so hopelessly and excruciatingly ignorant about the people he is trying to manipulate.
Watching Trump trying to get Iran to the negotiating table is like watching a blind man walking into the path of on an oncoming juggernaut.
If Iran would have had a decade of non-sanctions and attracting foreign investment, it might be in a position to buckle under US threats. But Iran has lost so much under Trump’s pernicious sanctions that it has nothing to lose. When the bully next door comes into your kitchen and threatens your family – and there is only a kitchen knife on a bare kitchen table but not a crumb to eat – you grab it and stab him. Iran believes that any attack on the US can only pay dividends and so is struggling with Trump’s idiotic logic and hilarious power game, which reached a pinnacle of farce recently when reports of his latest move to up the sanctions even more were met with him mentioning to “make Iran great again”. This, in the same week when the state department asked Iran to go back to respecting the JCPOA – the very deal that America walked away from.
You really can’t make this shit up. But the EU has an extraordinary opportunity right now to present itself as the perfect broker to set up a ‘Trump Iran Deal’ but just as the Iranians are unlikely to call the Oval Office, Trump is also loathed to see how the EU is the answer for a third party mediator to book a conference hall somewhere and arrange the mineral water bottles. But actually this is what the EU does quite well. He might be forgiven for thinking that if the EU is the answer, then it must have been a bloody stupid question in the first place. But it can’t be as nuts as the idea of a war with Iran.