The Theresa May Brexit Showdown
Matthew JAMISON | 21.11.2017 | WORLD / Europe

The Theresa May Brexit Showdown

The British Prime Minister Theresa May is in a great political bind and has been totally out negotiated and outmanoeuvred by the EU27. May is now caught between a Brussels immovable hard rock regarding the UK's divorce bill payment and her own Tory Party who will be aghast at the thought of giving into Brussels demands that Britain hand over roughly 40 billion Euros. 

Mrs. May's whole survival as UK Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party is to a large extent predicated upon her being able to secure a good enough divorce deal and transition/trade agreement that satisfies both the Remain and Leave wings of the Conservative Parliamentary Party and the Cabinet as well as the ardently hard-line Leave anti-European grassroots of the Little England Conservative Party in the country at large. EU27 Leaders know that far from dealing with a strong, stable and secure British Prime Minister in control in a dominant authoritative way of her Government and leading her country from the front vigorously and independently, they instead face an incredibly weak, incoherent, inconsistent, but predictably gutless and limited out of her depth mediocre English home counties Tory politician better suited to being a Conservative Education Secretary attempting to revive the Holy Grail of Grammar Schools for Tory Middle England rather than Prime Minister at this seminal moment in British and European history.

The European Union rightly is in no mood to back down over financial obligations that must be settled and honoured that the UK entered into before it decided to leave the European union. The whole issues of the divorce bill and the status of Ireland must be urgently and substantially clarified in precise detail by the British Government in order for the EU to determine at their next Council Summit in the middle of December before the Christmas holidays if Exit talks can move on to negotiations for a Transition and Trade Agreement. 

The only way for the British Government to kick start the Exit talks into high gear with phase two beginning on a Transition Agreement and Trade deal is for Theresa May to spell out clearly if the UK is willing to pay at least 40 billion euros. If she does net do this and if she does not present firm and concrete proposals regarding how the border between Northern Ireland [which is British and will be outside of the EU] and the Republic of Ireland [which is not British and will continue on as a member of the EU will operate without a physical border then she will get no deal and the EU Council will deem that insufficient progress has been made and that the decision on transition and trade talks will be postponed to the next Council Summit in the spring of 201x which renders a deal pretty worthless and meaningless for most business planning and so a mass exodus of business relocation outside of London and the UK may well begin on the strong and logical assumption there will no deal or certainly no quick and easy seamless transition. 

A great deal of banks and investment houses and financial institutions will leave the City hitting the London global financial centre hard as well Law firms and other financial institutes and international globalised businesses. It is hard to see how Theresa may well be able to avert a collapse in the phase one of the Exit talks and get a deal which opens the way to a transition and trade negotiation beginning by 201. Her party simply will; not countenance her paying a divorce bill of anything like or approaching 40 billion euros or the Single Market and Customs Union regulations and rules applying strictly to Northern Ireland or to the continued jurisdiction of the ECJ during a Transition period or a Transition that lasts more than two years. If she budges and gives the EU what it wants and is demanding to move the talks on she may not sell the deal through her Cabinet and Party

In such circumstances figures such as true Leavers and Brexiteers could take a run at her with Priti Patel, David Davis and Boris Johnson as well as Michael Gove as a King Maker bringing her down and replacing her with a True Leaver believers who would be willing to pull the plug on the national humiliation the EU has inflicted on the UK in outmanoeuvring it at every turn during the Divorce talks and get things going with a new post Brexit trade salvo for free trade agreements with China, America, India, Japan et al and the divorce money kept for extra investment in public services back in the UK. In such circumstances by agreeing to get a Deal with the EU Mrs. May could be laying the foundations for her demise and removal from Downing Street. 

Tags: UK  May  Brexit