The successful completion of the Russian military mission in Syria has caused – along with an overwhelming amount of positive comments – some speculations on a possible existence of an arrangement made between Russia and the US which is likely to be something along the lines of: you withdraw from Syria, and we make Kiev stick to the Minsk II agreement.
It would seem, the existence of such an arrangement is possible. However, it is hardly so. And here is why: in the eyes of the involved parties, the implementation of Minsk II agreement by Kiev has ceased to play its former pivotal role. Kiev regime is going down and even Minsk II won’t save it from drowning. Today, the main concern of Kiev’s foreign patrons is to find ways to preserve the established anti-Russian regime in Ukraine.
It is from this point of view one has to consider the return of the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces to the Homeland. The successful combat test of the Russian military means bringing a new figure into the international politics game. And Vladimir Putin introduced this figure into action taking into account the short-term and mid-term analysis of the developments on the global scene.
First of all, the arrival of the «new figure» is linked to the Ukrainian crisis. What kind of balance of power in this crisis had we seen until today? The actions of both, Poroshenko regime and its American puppeteers who pull the strings, could be explained entirely by the quote from Carl von Clausewitz – «war is the continuation of politics by other means». In their minds, a new war is the only way to save the regime. With the onset of the acute phase of the socio-economic crisis in Ukraine, the authorities would have no other choice but to go to war with the Donbass, calling for total compulsory draft and installing a police state.
The end goal of this affair, however, is not to defeat the rebellious republics. The new hostilities are planed for a different purpose, i.e., to accuse Russia of aggression and raise the issues of inviting the «peacekeepers» to the country. The logic behind the idea is that the Minsk II agreement will be thrown into the dustbin, therefore a new approach to the settlement of the crisis will be required.
The main part of this «new approach» is the internationalization of the conflict, which, according to Washington strategists, would finally eliminate Russian influence in Ukraine.
Naturally, within NATO the agreements on the «internationalization» will be achieved without a resolution from the UN Security Council and without Russian approval, similarly to how it was done in the case of bombings in Yugoslavia. The partners may disagree, but keeping in mind American expertise in «arm-twisting», the US will inevitably achieve its goal. Additionally, the calculations are based on the fact, that Russian image is already so much «demonized» that no particular argument will follow and the «peacekeepers» will enter Ukraine «at the request of the legitimate government».
After that, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics could be taken over, military-fascist dictatorship could be installed and the existing regime in Kiev could be preserved permanently.
There are no other options for Kiev and Washington. It’s either stop supporting the regime or start a military provocation, with the first option leading to uncertain consequences for the masterminds behind the crisis. And judging by the military preparations in Kiev, until today the second option was seriously considered. It is telling that everyone is talking about war with Russia, not the Donbass. Demands to return Crimea by force can be heard.
It may all seem like a pile of militaristic nonsense, but Pentagon and NATO always favor the war that brings them money. Everything else is «side effects» and «collateral damage».
But, we repeat, it all looked like that before Vladimir Putin introduced his «new figure» to the game. After that, life has changed drastically.
Moscow knows that even if Russia had an angel face it would still be called a demon. Overnight, Russia faced a task of stopping the western scenario of war in Ukraine from happening. It is only possible to stop it by preventing the Ukrainian Army from turning its offensive into a full-scale front-line action.
Russian pilots with Syrian experience are able to do it in the shortest time possible. Their expertise in precision aiming, recognizance support and surgical air strikes is invaluable. The «big war» will turn into the collapse of the regime.
Does the international law support such an action? The answer is clear if the following circumstances are considered:
- on March 16, the Donetsk People’s Republic has started to issue DNR passports for its citizens,
- an attack on Crimea will be considered as an act of unprovoked military aggression entailing an adequate response,
- an aggression against the Donbass would require an emergency peacekeeping operation.
After the Russian Aerospace Forces complete their task of stopping an act of aggression in the Donbass, further developments may vary. In particular, there is a potential of a strategic offensive by the Donbass militants on Kiev, which may result in the rise of the new political forces – ready to cooperate with Moscow – to power. Other scenarios are also possible, but none of them are beneficial for Kiev.
Russia, of course, will be declared the aggressor again, but Moscow understand well the true value of the information games today. Ensuring the safety of the country is much more important.
In short, the Russian Aerospace Forces with Syrian experience are just the very figure that changes the balance of power in the Ukrainian crisis. The masterminds behind the crisis will have to think twice before instigating a new bloodshed.
We can only hope that they get it right.