2015 was the year of dashed hopes and dissipated illusions for Ukraine. Some Ukrainians pinned hopes on the Maidan protests and the policy of European integration. Others cherished a dream that the political regime of homegrown fascism would suffer crushing defeat. Now it has become clear that all these hopes and aspirations have failed to materialize.
The only thing that one can say with confidence is that the future of Ukraine is absolutely unpredictable.
Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma was right saying that Ukraine is not Russia. At the same time, it is also not Gabon. It’s not even Somalia. Yet, Western experts talking about Ukraine have started to use the term failed state. They have a good reason to do so. Never before in the history there was a nation involved in such intensive self-destruction process. It became crystal clear in 2015.
In 2014 thousands of people joined Maidan protests banging pots and pans. They danced and rejoiced listening to Russophobe gibberish in confidence that Schengen visas in their pockets are a sure thing. They continued to support the regime by the force of inertia even watching the bloody events taking place in Odessa and Ilovaisk, Gorlovka and Shakhtyorsk.
In 2014 Ukraine was washed with blood but did not come to its senses. Tragic events took place in the winter of 2015 in Debaltseve. Ukrainian militarism started to dissipate the same way foreign credits vanish when it comes to the budget pushed through by the government of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
Some still brandish arms under the illusion that NATO would lend a helping hand.
The military is promised victories and booty. Right now the main thing for the people in uniform is that they are employed and get paid. No matter how meagre their pays may be – it’s better than nothing. No volunteers are standing in lines to recruitment offices. One can see young Ukrainian people hiding from conscription in all the countries of Eurasia.
Those who closely watch the events unfold realize that Ukraine won’t get help from abroad.
Other countries pursue their own goals. De facto they have already recognized Crimea as an inalienable part of Russia. They realize there is a process of Ukraine’s partition going on. The visas promised before have never been granted. No capable weapons systems have been delivered. The leaders of other countries assess the correlation of forces. They gradually normalize the relations with Russia. This process is not so obvious, but those who monitor the situation development can see the progress…
2015 was the year of mass brain washing manipulation. Those in power justify their failures by saying it’s all so bad because everything had been stolen before them. They blame Russia and Putin. True, Ukrainians stopped walking in the streets waving pans and colanders, but they still believe in what TV tells them.
In 2015 TV channels and the government did something hard to stomach. The rulers in Kiev led the country to unemployment, inflation, the destruction of industry and unimaginably high utilities rates against the background of promises to improve economy and achieve progress in social life.
Endless «shows» and mass fighting accompany the proceedings in the Ukrainian parliament. High placed officials call each other thieves and throw dishes. The US ambassador speaks with exasperation about the failed attempts to fight corruption. The nationalists from Svoboda political party toss grenades at National Guard soldiers, the right-wing group Pravy Sector stages ultimate fighting competitions in Mukachevo.
The legacy of Nestor Makhno («Father», a Ukrainian anarcho-communist revolutionary and the commander of independent anarchist army in Ukraine during the Russian Civil War in 1917-1922) has become a call card and a political «fashion» in Ukraine. Regional powers ignore the central government, courts and city councils are attacked. The hapless head of state is threatened physically by Ukrainian homosexuals as their hopes for sexual freedom have become dashed.
Some things lying on the surface have been hushed up, for instance: moral degradation, growing emigration, progressing poverty and imitation of independence. The members of government serve as errand boys. President Poroshenko’s main function is to translate into Ukrainian what US officials, like Vice President Joe Biden, Assistant State Secretary Victoria Nuland or ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey R Pyatt say…
It’s hard to conceal the fact that social subsidies don’t exist anymore. People have to pay for food in kindergartens, for textbooks in schools, for use of public libraries and other cultural institutions in accordance with the executive order № 3628 issued by Prime Minister Yatsenyuk. It is all accompanied by the fall in income and growth of prices. Even the subsidies the government raised so much ado about in reality happened to be a hoax covering a decision to abolish bank secrecy. Any stash a citizen may have becomes government’s property now. All these numerous social ulcers cannot be kept secret anymore. That’s why nobody in Ukraine likes Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. Illusions vanish. The real problem is that still millions of Ukrainians remain to be victims of «soft power» (the Ukrainian media). They erroneously perceive the destruction of the state as a victory. They justify the actions leading to thousands of killed, the partition of the country and elimination of key branches of economy. These millions found it impossible to reconcile with the oligarchs close to former President Victor Yanukovych, but they find it O.K. that the oligarchs sponsored by Poroshenko rule the country today.
These millions believe that it is acceptable not too pay off debts and grab the gas destined for Europe.
These millions of people continue to ignore the rise of fascism, the reign of terror and the threat of religious war. The gangs of armed bandits going on a rampage are painted as an evidence of real democracy. These groups of criminals show that they are ready to make mincemeat of any government. The people mentioned above refuse the legacy of their past. They are ready to make deals even with the devil if he speaks Mova (the official language of Ukraine), dances Hopak (the Ukrainian national dance) and dons national costume.
These millions of people with twisted minds prolong the drawn-out period of government’s degradation, no matter what forms this kind of regime may adopt. The rulers feed them with lies and people feed the rulers with own blood and chant «Long Live Ukraine!»
The loss of the Donbass is becoming an irrefutable fact. It becomes more evident with each and every salvo of Ukrainian artillery. The separation of this territory will, no doubt, expedite the fall of the regime. But with the regime gone, the Ukrainian problems will not be solved. The salvation is in the truth and repentance.
The truth is becoming more evident any time incompetent officials commit a blunder, utilities rates rise and new public scandals related to top officials hit radar screens. The truth generates doubts and feeling of shame. In its turn, it will lead to repentance. But there is a long way to go.