Calm and tranquility had reigned in Germany and the rest of Europe until recently. Peace had appeared to be part of everyday life there. Now the times are changing. European politicians used to talk about attractiveness of European values and success of unique process of European integration etc. with a sense of superiority. Now it looks like those days are gone.
A process has been launched (I emphasize – it’s only a beginning!). It can result in a big bang to shake the European universum. Scores of immigrants flood Europe. A desire to live in democracy is not the reason. It’s not even the raging war that makes them flee. No, the reason is different. The majority of them simply want a better life. They were told that Germany is the right place to go. The process is surprisingly smooth. The people coming to Europe are well organized and informed. Punctilious Germans made calculations. The special train arriving at Munich from Berlin on Tuesday, September 15, did not bring 518 refugees as expected, but only 339. 179 of them escaped to disappear somewhere in Germany. First the train was stopped at Bitterfeld, then at Dessau… Refugees are reluctant to register when they come to newly built reception centers in Germany.
A search for fugitives started. A helicopter was scrambled. Some were detained and made register. Media say migrants don’t want to stay in Germany. They allegedly prefer Sweden and that’s the reason for trying to waiver registration process.
Evidently, this is a far-fetched story. It appears to be a botched attempt to prevent panic from spreading. Those who stopped the train and ran away hardly want to meet gullible volunteers, neither will they attend German language classes. Probably German journalists have not read the essay of their great compatriot Immanuel Kant called «On a Supposed Right to Lie Because of Philanthropic Concerns». That’s why they lie everywhere and all the time, perhaps even to themselves, in a naïve belief that everything will end well. Will it? In just one day, September 15, the number of people crossing the German borders doubled up to 7266…
Perhaps, the conditions of refugees in Sweden are better than in Germany, but they are better off in Germany than in Hungary and the Czech Republic – the countries they cross without stop. Media report that having stumbled into the fortifications at Hungary’s border, refugees seek ways to get into Croatia and Slovenia. Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban is nearly the only European leader who dares to call a spade a spade. In his interview with German Bild, the Prime Minister said the asylum seekers have been duped twice: first by human smugglers and then by European politicians promising them a better life and a chance to stay in Europe.
Orban reasonably reminds that many refugees come from reception camps in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon where they were safe. If measures are not taken, he says, the flows will not stop. People will come from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mali, Ethiopia and Nigeria. The European Commission is not doing much. The Hungarian PM has to act on his own. Victor Orban said on September 17 that Hungary would erect the wall at the borders with Romania and Croatia. Before that the country closed its border with Serbia.
Germany and France still keep on talking about a «fair» contribution into solving the refugees’ problem. They mean quotas on accepting migrants imposed by European Commission. The controversy is dragging on. Meanwhile, Prague and Bratislava, inspired by the example of Berlin, started to restore border controls.
The first article of Hungarian constitution says everything a German Chancellor does is right, said Victor Orban ironically. The he became serious and pointed out that it is impossible to make people stay in case they want to go to Germany until borders are protected. For instance, the border areas of Baltic States. And he is right. The train was stopped on the way from Munich to Berlin. It shows refugees had already decided which way to go.
It’s impossible to agree with Victor Orban on another issue. He believes that EU leaders are «living in a dream world.» According to him, they don't have the slightest idea about the threat posed to Europe by migrants. Quite the opposite! Leading European politicians have nothing to do with dreamers. Not without reason they hope to maintain control over the situation. What means to use and how high the price will be? That's quite a different matter. Migrants greeted German Chancellor with cheers in front of refugee home in Berlin's Spandau district. The Germans» anxiety is soothed by the fact that high-tech means of surveillance are developed to keep track of migrants.
The Future Security 2015 conference (an annual event to bring together high standing military and defense industry officials) took place in Berlin on September 13-15 to demonstrate electronic systems for crowd control, which are capable of identifying individuals and means of transport, and even escorting perpetrators. True, asylum seekers change Germany and do it faster than one could imagine.
I remembered the Big Bang theory intentionally. Wolfgang Ischinger, a German diplomat and the Chairman of Munich Security Conference since 2008, has just come up with his version of it. Being a gray eminence of German foreign policy, he knows what he is talking about. The diplomat believes Big Bang will not take place in Europe (sleep tight the residents of Berlin, Munich and Cologne!) but rather in the Middle East. He believes that military options should be thoroughly considered as the ways to tackle the problem of Syria. Ischinger does not exclude the eventuality of Bundeswehr's deployment in that country. The years he spent in the capacity of German ambassador to Washington were not wasted. He took a page out of US book to get closely acquainted with Washington’s vision of conflict management.
Not everyone is happy with the Ischinger’s provocation, including the government. Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany Gerd Müller, a politician with the Christian Social Union (CSU), believes that the Syrian crisis could be solved only as a result of diplomatic initiative implemented under the auspices of United Nations Security Council. Social Democrats say ditto in support of their leader Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
The federal government is split on the issue of asylum seekers. No unity is possible as Germany faces the problem of unprecedented scale. Angela Merkel offered a temporary plan of action till the final solution is found. She believes that the asylum seekers should be divided into two groups. The ones who do not come from war zones must go. In her speech delivered in Frankfurt on September 17, the German Chancellor said those who come from areas where no combat actions take place must leave Germany till the situation changes to make them need protection. According to her, Germany will give refuge only to those who really need it. Wolfgang Ischinger is a very experienced person. He made an ominous prediction about Big Bang in the Middle East. If what he said comes true, everyone will fall into the group of those in need of protection. I wonder how Germany and the rest of Europe will respond to such a turn of events.