War in Ukraine: Price Tag is Measured in Billions of Dollars

War in Ukraine: Price Tag is Measured in Billions of Dollars

It has become clear that the United States and Europe are divided on Ukraine. Germany and France have chosen the policy of supporting «the victorious Ukrainian revolution» by non-military means to prevent the risk of conflict spillover. The peaceful stabilization of the regime led by Poroshenko meets their long-term interests as they seek to move Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence.  They have applied time and effort to prevent Kiev from sliding down to military debacle. These countries will do their best to reduce the status of Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics as the efforts aimed at reaching peaceful settlement of crisis are underway. 

The United States prefers not to mention the progress achieved thanks to the Minsk accords. Washington believes that military means should be used to stop what it calls the «Russian aggression» in Ukraine. A bill to provide $1 billion in lethal weapons to Ukraine was introduced on February 10 by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, and top Democrat Rep. Adam Smith of Washington. An independent report has been recently issued by eight former senior American officials, who urge the United States to send $3 billion in defensive arms and equipment to Ukraine, including anti-armor missiles, reconnaissance drones, armored Humvees and radars that can determine the location of enemy rocket and artillery fire.

It means there is a great probability that the Minsk peaceful process will continue while the US adopts quite a different approach. Even if heavy weapons are withdrawn and the talks on the self-proclaimed republics’ status are kicked off with life returning to normal, the «phantom» of ‘Russian aggression» - a threat to counter – will never leave the heads of those who represent the US ruling circles. 

The people who belong to the US political elite have their own way of looking at things. They imagine Russian troops invading Ukraine to enable the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics win victories. No proof is needed to support it. But it’s not just another mass delusion. As Benjamin Israeli (a British Conservative politician, writer and aristocrat who twice served as Prime Minister in the XIX century) said that each political performance has backstage directors. The ideology of world dominance is what guides the United States from behind the scenes. They see no any other way to save the US financial parasite but establishing global control. 

The US political class is re-evaluating the Ukraine’s crisis. Washington wants to launch a proxy war in the Russia’s geopolitical space, but the Ukraine’s military and the volunteer formations of nationalists have so far failed to defeat the separated republics. Provoking a war is a strategic goal for the United States. If the Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics stay undefeated, the plan of bringing the post-Soviet space under NATO control will be frustrated. And this control is the cornerstone of the strategic program aimed at establishing the US dominance in the world. 

In the near future Washington will be watching how the events unfold as the status of the self-proclaimed republics is being defined. Together with Kiev they will do their best to downgrade it. There will be preparations for another war which would become inevitable in case Luhansk and Donetsk get the self-rule status high enough to make them autonomous. The efforts to boost the military capability of Ukraine are on the way. Americans realize that the further use of Ukrainian conscripts as the main source of manning the military will lead nowhere. The virus of nationalism has not been spread widely enough among the Ukraine’s population to make every citizen ready to give his life countering the «Russian aggression». An ordinary conscript does not want to go to war. Conscription does not lead to high morale in the military ranks. The battalions of volunteers-nationalists are more reliable. But they are not as resistant as the Donetsk and Luhansk self-defense militias who have seen service in the ranks of Soviet or Ukrainian armies. They defend their homeland and it makes them fearless. The United States view the volunteer battalions as the backbone of Ukraine’s forces. The mission is to arm and train them with the help of NATO instructors. The number of battalions will be increased to 20-25 (over ten thousand men). The US military instructors are already in place. Great Britain has announced its plans to join the United States. The brigades of mercenaries may become another Ukrainian strike force. By creating such formations Washington kills two birds with one stone: it will have the formations of «dogs of war» like the Foreign Legion which could be used not in Ukraine only in future and it will also boost interaction between Ukrainian and NATO military. The private military companies will become the third component of Ukrainian security forces. The contractors like Polish ASBS Othago, US Greystone and Academi have already seen action in Ukraine. The casualties (according to some sources, the death toll is over 300) testify they were involved in combat actions on a rather large-scale. The US government can make the contractors a more powerful force with a broader range of missions to fulfill, especially as they take part in punishers’ operations when language barrier prevents contacts with local population. 

The regular military have to see action and gain experience. The United States will make them a force of the second echelon, but first they have to be trained and equipped. In a few months the self-defence formations will have to face a new enemy as the Ukrainian army becomes a well-trained, well-equipped and motivated force. That’s what the billion of dollars will be spent on. The US political elite will remain trapped by the outdated perception of the United States role in the world. The lessons of lost wars have not been learned by America as it ignores the suffering it has brought on the people of the countries it attacked. The US is preparing for a new phase of civil war in Ukraine. 

Tags: Ukraine  US