Has the countdown to the second Ukrainian War been launched? Or, perhaps, the second Ukrainian War has already been started? Anyway the cease-fire is broken. The Ukraine’s government frustrated the plans to hold another meeting of the Minsk contact group on January 16. Ukraine keeps on provoking the further aggravation of the situation – the Donetsk airport fighting has become more intense recently. The Kiev-based regime is launching a large-scale offensive against the Donetsk and Luhansk republics along the entire front line.
Direct talks between Kiev and the Donbass republics could have reduced tensions but Ukraine flatly rejects such an idea. The economic situation is getting worse to make stronger the temptation to play the winner takes it all game and try to force the insurgents into submission. The Ukraine rulers realize that a political settlement will take power away from them. Ukraine is hard set for money, the International Monetary Fund has suspended granting loans, and no credits are to come from other international organizations. The growing taxes are becoming a heavy burden for common people. The approved budget will inevitably disbalance the economy to expand strong but limited in scope local actions into mass protests. Under the circumstances a war is viewed by the Ukraine’s ruling circles as the lesser evil. The people’s mobilization against the outside threat will quell the protest movement for some time. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazi are ready to lead the protests. They have armed formations with seasoned fighters in the ranks, they exert influence on security agencies and they have prepared plans to take the power. The Neo-Nazi strongly support the continuation of war. Dmitriy Yarosh, the leader of Far-Right Ukrainian Militant Group called Pravy Sector, has emphasized that «the patriots will not stand in the way of people as they overthrow the government» but it’s not a priority as long as the war is on. That’s exactly what the ruling circles need at the moment. They have armed the radicals now viewed as a threat to their rule. The war is the better choice. No matter great hardships, the new political entities in the east are gradually improving. They set an example for other regions to make them want more power as the Kiev-initiated partial decentralization process is making progress. All these factors will benefit the Ukrainian government unless its forces suffer defeat again like they did in August, 2014. It looks more and more probable that the Ukrainian rulers want the West to take the renewed fighting as fait accompli hoping it will offer substantial military aid. Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili advocates such policy. He has strong influence on the Ukrainian government. Some members of his team are offered to join the Ukrainian cabinet setting an example of outside governance. The Georgian-US lobby in Kiev is inspired by the US Ukraine Freedom Support Act signed into law by President Obama in December. Actually the new law is nothing else but the declaration of war on Russia.
Some say that there are two parties in Kiev. One is the party of war to include Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Oleksandr Turchynov, the Secretary of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Sergei Pashinsky, the head of parliamentary committee for defense and national security, other members of parliament and commanders of punishers’ battalions. This party is opposed by the party of peace. Not exactly so – today it’s impossible to belong to the political elite being a member of the party of peace. These two things are incompatible. The party of peace (journalists believe that President Petro Poroshenko belongs to this group) actually stands for a military solution. The differences are purely tactical – the parties have different views on how to quell the popular uprising in the east.
The Kiev regime appears to underestimate the Russia’s resolve to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbass and further extermination of civil population there. On the other hand, it overestimates the West’s determination to support any military adventure initiated by Kiev, even if it is doomed from the start. The most dangerous thing is that those who came to power as a result of the Ukrainian «revolution of dignity» are ready to undertake a large-scale military provocation without previously consulting their Western partners. If Kiev really takes this step that the Ukrainian statehood will be doomed to reshape the political geography of Eastern Europe. There is a high probability the events will unfold this way.