Washington and the vassal Kiev regime make attempts to change the balance of forces in Donbass into their favor. The fight to quell the Novorossiya resistance movement evokes Russia’s concern over its security. It’s not fantasies about returning Crimea but rather fundamental threats resulting from Ukraine’s foreign policy.
The use of force may squeeze out Russian speaking population from Donbass. Chasteners believe the end of «anti-terrorist» operation is near, they have Washington’s support and act according to the principle «The winner takes it all.» In May-June insurgents offered stiff resistance and the Kiev regime talked about amnesty and forgiving everyone who would lay down arms. Now the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) is adopting the laws allowing to confiscate the property of those who are accused of involvement in «separatist» and «terrorist» activities. The repressive regime gives no chance for public activities conducted by civil society activists or expression of disagreement with the official propaganda. The tragedy of Odessa Khatyn and judicial power abuse in Kharkiv show the regime is ready to commit any crime while cracking down on dissenters and dissidents. If the banner of Novorossia will go down, then Donbass will be subject to purges, cruel crimes and intimidation of civilians. Everything will be justified by hardships of war. Russians and Russian speakers will be made escape to other regions or neighboring states. The victory of Kiev will automatically entail the change in the composition of population making this region hostile to Russia friendly anti-fascist forces. Drastic changes will affect the political situation in the country. Until now the Ukraine’s south-east, including Donbass, has influenced the country’s political life standing for friendship with Russia, advocating anti-fascist ideology and being faithful to cultural and historic assets of Russian world. This influence may disappear along with Novorossiya. Perhaps not forever. Anti-fascist forces may raise head again and start their struggle for Ukraine’s resurrection, no matter it’s hard to do under the conditions of vibrant anti-Russian propaganda.
Today the Bandera ideology is partly rehabilitated in the conscience of many Ukrainians, especially political circles. The theses dominating in Ukraine presuppose that Russia is the main enemy of Ukrainians who have unique national identity in the world where racial-ethnic differences divide peoples – these are the ideological pillars instilled from school days. Ukraine has a 2000 km long border with Russia. If the process is not stopped then «a Nazi state tailored for war with Russia» (Sergey Glazyev) and under full control of the United States will appear at Russian border.
All the attempts «to appease» the West by refusing to support those who fight in Novorossiya are illusory and pernicious. The anti-Russian sanctions, the licentious campaign against Russian President Putin show that Washington has already made all the calculations to assess the advantages of striking Russia from the springboard in Ukraine as the US-inspired changes are taking place in the east of Europe. The Americans perceive the fight for Ukraine as part of a broader plan to topple the Russia’s leadership. Then the overseas masters of «the Grand Chessboard» games will move further…
If the Washington-supported Kiev regime wins in Novorossiya, it will use Russian speaking Banderites to undermine the political stability in the Kuban and Russian Far East by sending Ukrainian agents there and recruiting local people. The standard technology of provoking interethnic conflicts will be used including artificial stirring up of Circassian and Ugro-Finnic issues.
Banderites have a program to expand activities on the territory of the Russian Federation, they have enough people and are they willing to fight. Washington has money and its goal is to divide Russia. There should be no illusions about it.
Russia has to prevent a humanitarian collapse in Donbass followed by compulsory resettlement of the local population and the military defeat of Novorossiya. It should not let such things happen in the Russian geopolitical space. The Kiev regime is not independent and it could be influenced through its Western bosses. Taking into account the demonization of Russia in the West, it means nothing less than launching an information war.
Moscow is getting ready to counter the West’s anti-Russian policy. The response will probably be comprehensive. Perhaps Russia will have to reconsider its place in the existing system of global security. I mean the Intermediate – Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty and other agreements. The approaches to non-proliferation could be reconsidered; the compliance with the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3) could be questioned.
The return of these issues into the world contemporary agenda will not mean the return to Cold War. These are just a few steps Russia can take as retaliatory actions. The other side should clearly see how far it can go without triggering such reaction. The prospects for retaliatory response by Russia deter the situation from sliding into a full-scale «Cold War» that Russia tries to avoid. The Ulyanovsk transit center and the whole Russian route used for getting supplies to Afghanistan could be closed for NATO. Terminating space cooperation and the refusal to transport American astronauts to the International Space station are among the measures to be taken in response.
The West understands only the language of force. This is an axiom confirmed by the history of the USSR and Russia relationship with the Western world. The confrontation with the Soviet Union was stopped only at the beginning of the 1970s when the USSR beefed up its strategic nuclear missiles potential to the level of the United States. The war in Vietnam was ended, the relationship between Moscow and Washington normalized, Willie Brandt launched its Eastern policy and the Helsinki Act was signed…
The reunification with Crimea was a turning point of Russia’s foreign policy. The West failed to understand it. It is trying to define how far it could go in its endeavors to sideline Russia in world politics. When the losses entailed by the confrontation with Russia will become heavy enough, the sobering effect will rapidly come to Western capitals.