Ukrainian, Georgian and other Maidan supporters believe that Moscow is dreaming of bringing in troops to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions which became people’s republics as a result of May 11 referendums. They see Moscow-sent agents behind each and every thing happening there. Russian operatives are believed to work day and night looking for a pretext to justify intervention. That’s why fortifications are erected and skirmishes take place…
The pro-Maidan brain washing makes people firmly believe that Russia is intent to intervene militarily, no matter the facts clearly speak otherwise. For instance, the New York Times wrote that the Donbass militias are poorly armed and equipped, the main source of recruitment are local people and the formations are led by retired military who are Ukrainian citizens. An American journalist spent the whole week with insurgents and never found any traces of «Russian aggressor». Still in Kiev, Lviv and other places they stubbornly keep on harping on the very same thing about an upcoming invasion from Russia.
The issue of would-be intervention is constantly on the radar screen but nothing ever happens in reality. It raises questions. The answers should be inspiring to make people see the brighter side of things. They cannot say plainly that Russia does not need to bring in troops while the militias successfully counter the Ukrainian military with no populated area lost as of now. Instead it’s more blessed to say that Putin is afraid to clash with NATO intent to get involved into the conflict in case a Russian soldier crosses the border. Many say so while discussing the news likes «the United States is sending six more F-15 fighter jets and one KC-135 refueling aircraft to Poland», «a US warship has entered the Black Sea» or «NATO eyes permanent presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States». Former Georgian President Saakashvili said in an interview that Russia was allegedly stopped in 2008 due to the US readiness to intervene.
There is something to make precise here. First, it should be understood that NATO and the United States are the same thing. Of course, some European forces were sent to Afghanistan and Iraq but their contribution was limited, the training, equipment and morale were hardly up to par. No NATO operation is possible without the United States.
True the US is number one military power globally, but these are not the best times for the US armed forces. Economic realities require cuts. The programs are reduced, the US goes frugal when it comes to research and development (R&D) and military bases get closed. The trend runs counter to plans that envision a military solution in Ukraine, the scenario pro-Maidan media and bloggers speak out for.
There is one more aspect to mention here. Not being a member, Ukraine is not under NATO umbrella. When the US faced better times, it could have been ignored, after all Iraqi Kurds and Shiites had no relation to NATO too. Now it is important. The US is overstretched with commitments it imposed upon itself in better times, now it hardly needs any new burdens.
Talking about the events in Ukraine, it’s worth to look at what is happening in other places. In 2011 the US declared the Asia-Pacific pivot policy. It was described in detail by Hillary Clinton in her America’s Pacific Century published by Foreign Policy. According to the former State Secretary, the US priority was to deter China from extending its global reach. Increasing US military presence is an important element of the new policy, as well as boosting Japan’s missile defense capabilities.
But China is gradually spreading its wings. It claims Senkaku islands (the Diaoyu in China) under Japan’s control. The disputed territory is reported to be rich in oil and gas. Beijing supports its claims by staging military exercises while its Navy ships breach territorial waters claimed by Japan. The tensions get exacerbated.
The Security Treaty between the United States and Japan is in force, the US is under obligation to be involved in case Japan is attacked. It has confirmed its commitments but never recognized the archipelago as Japan’s national territory. The United States prefers peaceful settlement while China goes on testing the America’s resolve.
South Korea, the Philippines and Australia are also US allies. They are looking at the United States. If it does not firmly side with Japan, the system of alliances will go down as a house of cards. Beijing will gain; the US pivot policy will fail.
The Far East is the region of tight rope walking and play of nerves. Every day new statements are made and new steps are taken to demonstrate the parties’ resolve. It’s hard to make predictions, but there is one conclusion which is obvious: the United States has no whatsoever intent to get mired in Ukraine and defend the Donetsk or Lugansk no matter what fancies Kiev strategists and obedient media outlets may entertain…
So here we got dry rations for you, gentlemen, go and enjoy yourself, do satisfy your far-fetched fancies.