Why Is Ukraine Being Stirred Up?

Why Is Ukraine Being Stirred Up?

Demonstrators in Kiev are blockading the cabinet building, picketing the Rada and seizing state institutions... Looking at these actions, magnified many times by the television screen, many see what is going on in Ukraine as a rehearsal for «Orange Revolution 2». In a certain sense this may be true. However, why is this happening just now? After all, ostensibly Ukraine has not declined to sign the association agreement with the European Union, but has merely postponed it; furthermore, despite the failure of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, it is not rushing to enter the Customs Union. 

The answer to the question of why all this is happening, as well as the causes of the feverish activity of the Ukrainian opposition, which, by the way, is not very numerous, apparently consists of several aspects.

First, several days before the beginning of the Vilnius summit, construction of the South Stream in Serbia began, and documents were signed for Turkey to join the project, circumventing Ukraine.

Second, a number of high-ranking euroofficials have a personal interest in Ukraine's association with the EU; these include Barroso and Fule, who have rashly tied their political careers to Ukraine's opting in favor of eurointegration. The disturbances in the Ukrainian capital have given them a tenuous hope of compelling Kiev to sign the agreement before February-March 2015, that is, before the start of elections to the European Parliament, to which European voters are unlikely to reelect failures. That is why European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule is so anxiously urging the government and opposition in Ukraine to «begin negotiations immediately», and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara stated on the first day of the disturbances on the Ukrainian television channel «1+1» that a Ukrainian delegation would go to Brussels for negotiations regarding the association of Ukraine and the EU «next week».

Third, the China-Eastern Europe summit which took place in Bucharest demonstrated the parties' intention to realize investment projects in the Eastern European region without the participation of the European Union, let alone the United States. This event, together with the signing of a variety of agreements between Eastern European countries and the PRC, has caused a real panic in Brussels. For example, EU Commissioner Gucht stated that China is acting against the European Union in the spirit of «divide and conquer», the European Commission sent out ultimatum memos to the countries that participated in the summit forbidding them to sign independent agreements with the Chinese, etc. However, all this has turned out to be in vain, especially with regard to Ukraine. Most likely that is why Viktor Yanukovich, who on the eve of the summit in Vilnius was able to negotiate the lease of 9% of Ukraine's arable land (3 million hectares) to the Chinese for 99 years, set off on an official visit to China, which will take place December 3-6, as soon as the disturbances in Kiev began.

Fourth, the position of the United States on the Ukrainian issue has great significance; the U.S. is interested in accomplishing a number of interrelated goals: 

a) Not allowing its competitors on the Eurasian continent, i.e., Russia and the European Union, to become stronger. 

b) Preserving the Eastern Partnership, now unneeded after Vilnius, for the resolution of the «Ukrainian question»; according to the final declaration of the Vilnius summit, the Partnership has taken on an auxiliary military dimension. (Something similar happened with the GUAM organization on the threshold of Georgia's aggression against South Ossetia, provoked by the West). This «auxiliary military dimension» will begin to reveal itself as early as January 2014, when a frigate from the Ukrainian navy will join an EU naval operation off the coast of Somalia, and then it will take the form of the participation of Ukrainian military personnel in EU Battlegroups in 2014 and 2016. 

c) Testing fine-tuning all the tools for ensuring Washington's desired outcome in the Ukrainian presidential election in 2015. 

Polish political scientists answer the question posed in the title of this article without hesitation. For example, Mateusz Piskorski openly writes that «a certain part of the 'Ukrainian' protest was developed and prepared in the United States Embassy in Kiev. This is not even the European Union, but an overseas center of power»...

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