Oleg DMITRENKO - Independent analyst and researcher
The Syrian situation appears to be moving to the new qualitative stage – the brink of war. Those who plan attacking Iran see the Basar Assad’s overthrow as a preliminary step. The vеtо imposed by Russia and China on the UN Security Council’s draft resolution opening a way to intervention in Syria gave rise to a storm of intimidations by the USA and its allies against Moscow. It’s imperative to meet the assault with rapid and tough response because the intervention threat is not gone. Countries rather exotic for the world politics arena like Qatar, for instance, followed the example of the USA and Germany intimidating Russia.
The Russian foreign minister gave clear explanations behind the reason for blocking the last Western draft resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council. He said some things should be made precise and rectified because they can hardly be implemented in the present form. Just one example - the long enough list of requirements for the Syrian government to comply with says the security forces and army units are to pull out of cities and populated areas back to the barracks. Russia proposed a logical, from its point of view, amendment; it should be done simultaneously with cessation of violence and seizing city quarters by armed groups. To leave the things as they are means to call on the government to unilaterally evacuate from cities and settlements. And this means that either the UN Security Council adopts an unrealistic resolution: for what leader in his sane mind and holding power would simply cede the cities to unlawful armed formations? Or, if it’s not a slip up on the part of co-authors, it is suggested that the UN Security Council steps into a civil war taking sides.
Right after the session U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Susan E. Rice, said the from now on the blood of Syrian peaceful citizens losing lives as a result of the Assad’s regime atrocities, is on the hands of those who oppose the resolution. She was more frank on February 7 saying Russia and China would regret their veto. Especially dealing with new democratic Syria. A short sighted approach. Ms.Susan Rice stubbornly avoids the fact that it’s the USA who gives money to the militants that shed blood of peaceful Syrians. The much talked about “Assad’s regime atrocities” have never been corroborated by a single fact - all information about wounded and dead is referred to…Syrian “opposition!” Following the US ambassador Germany deputy representative George Schtreiter also said Russia and China would hold responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed in Syria.
At the same time Moscow based Syrian opposition representatives declared a jihad on all members of public organizations standing out against foreign intervention in Syria. A letter sent to the Committee of Solidarity with the Peoples of Libya and Syria, Moscow’s interregional organization VECHE, and other Russian organizations (the letters were signed by “Insurrection”) says “a day of reckoning is coming near”, “we declare a jihad” (1).
As I’ve already mentioned Qatar started to intimidate Moscow too. Before the vote the Qatar’s foreign minister addressed Vitaly Churkin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, saying that he was giving a warning to Russia that it would lose all Arab states in case it doesn’t abstain from veto and supports the UN decision. In response. Churkin quietly said: ”If you talk to me like this again there will be no such thing as Qatar tomorrow.” (2) (“si vous me parlerez une autre fois de cette facon, il n'y aura plus une telle chose comme le Qatar a partir d'aujourd'hui). (3)
In just three days Spanish, Italian, French, UK, German and US ambassadors left Syria. The US closed the embassy and evacuated the personnel. On February 7 Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (all six states are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - GCC) called off ambassadors.
Simultaneously the EU said the next package of sanctions against Syria was being worked out. The new steps to exert pressure should be elaborated by as early as February 273. As Reuters reports citing European diplomats in Brussels the Syrian Central bank may be added to the black list, its assets frozen and all its transactions stopped. Export and import of phosphates, precious stones, gold and other precious metals may be banned. Let me remember the USA and EU stole all gold reserves of Libya and Egypt from the banks located on their territory. The USA blocked (4) (the same thing as stealing) all Iranian state assets located on the US soil. The order to do so was given by president Obama personally.
The Western media fully ignores the information about a referendum on new Syrian constitution that as president Assad said would take place in the near future (Assad said so on February 7 in Damascus while holding talks with Russia foreign minister Sergey Lavrov).
The USA, their European allies and Arab satellites need no peaceful solutions. The West is going to overcome the economic crisis with the help of war. Syria and Iran are targets. It explains why it’s all the same for the “global community” what Teheran and Damascus do for reaching peaceful settlement. Is it really so that only a threat of a strike against European and US big cities with weapons of mass destruction can stop the war at the moment? But neither Iran nor Syria possess such weapons. But reasons for the haste Western leaders act with is understood. Two of the major ones are elections in Russia and Iran. A war in Iran appears to be planned till March. Let’s take a look at the dates. March 2 is the day of general parliamentary elections in Iran, March 4 is the day of presidential elections in Russia, the activities aimed at delegitimization of the results of the both are in full swing. The influence on Iran and Russia at the Syrian front is exerted in a strictly synchronized way.
Under the circumstances the adamant stance of Moscow, as was confirmed again by talks held in Damascus by S. Lavrov and M. Fradkov on February 7, - is a sign of hope. A new contact was signed on delivery of 36 Yak -130 (5) training jets, what caused serious concern in Washington. Taking specific features of terrain into account, the aircraft may be effective against guerilla formations trained for combat in Syria on the territory of adjacent countries, as well as countering amphibious forces while sea landing operations. I have no doubt upgraded S-300 air defense systems, cruise and anti ship missiles, electronic warfare systems, proven to be effective capturing a US RQ-170 unmanned aerial vehicle (Iranians said on December 4 they captured a US unmanned aerial reconnaissance vehicle in hit in the Eastern part of the country) (6) in the inventory of Syria and Iran would placate an aggressor.
In case defense systems delivery to Syria and Iran would coincide with strong frost, and one never knows if severe colds would or would not interrupt Russian gas supplies to Europe, there may be more arguments against the war in favor of peaceful settlement…
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On June 22 1941 Nazi Germany attacked the USSR without declaration of war. It brought something new into international relations. The beginning of February 2012 may “enrich” world diplomacy with new innovations – breaking diplomatic relations de facto without doing so de jure, recognition of armed bandits and marauders as “a government” of a country slated to be seized and consecutive bringing in other countries military contingent to “aid” gangs of puppets. One way or another no one will wait till full scale civil war in Syria starts. Some “coalition forces” are slated to be a force of intervention to destroy the Syrian statehood. The “third world war” is actually going on. Though no weapons of mass destruction are used as yet.