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Vyacheslav Mikhailov

Independent analyst and researcher

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November 23, 2014
Will Ankara Continue Its Gas Games behind Baku’s Back?

…If Ankara continues its game behind Baku’s back, forcing Azerbaijan to make concessions on gas contracts previously entered into, then Azerbaijan has an alternative. Two days before Erdogan’s visit to Ashgabat, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan announced the resumption of gas exports to Russia in 2015, which were suspended for technical reasons in August 2013. By strengthening its ties with Moscow, Baku will be able to successfully withstand increasing pressure from Turkey on the issue of gas.

September 11, 2014
Georgia Boosts Cooperation with NATO

The NATO summit adopted a significant aid package to Georgia to pave the way for full-fledged membership. The country did not receive the MAP (Membership Action Plan). But it goes on to boost the cooperation. For instance, a new NATO military training center is to be built and some exercises of the alliance are to be held on Georgian soil. The NATO liaison office will have more functions to carry out. The NATO summit final declaration says the measures are aimed at enhancing the Georgia’s military capability and interoperability with the alliance…

July 25, 2014
Azerbaijan – Turkey: Caucasian Prisoner of Asia Minor

The Euro Atlantic and Eurasian integration processes have passed Azerbaijan leaving it on the sidelines. The Azeri call it the policy of «flexible alliances» or keeping at some distance from all other power centers except Turkey… Turkey has no interest in Azerbaijan’s moving to any kind of integration. Turkey wants to be a bridge that Azerbaijan has to cross in order get to the old continent. The Eurasian integration would offer great prospects for Azerbaijan but Turkey is strongly against. It firmly opposes any cooperation of Azerbaijan with Russia or Iran. There are many ways Ankara could use its leverage to impact Baku… 

July 5, 2014
Russia’s Parity Policy in the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan’s Eurasian Prospects

The attention of outside forces to the largest South Caucasus republic is growing steadily, with the US, the European Union and Russia all seeking to win over Azerbaijan. Events in Ukraine and the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) have raised the stakes in the game codenamed «winning the sympathy of Baku». Among the noted players targeting Azerbaijan, the US is the least consistent, and the political elite in the Caspian republic continue to regard its American partners with suspicion… 

May 30, 2014
Why Richard Morningstar Is Threatening Azerbaijan with a Maidan

Several days ago Richard Morningstar, the U.S. Ambassador in Baku, made a statement in an interview with the Azerbaijani office of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty of a sort which diplomats do not usually dare to make. The American suggested that one of the lessons Baku should learn from the events in Ukraine is that the Maidan could repeat itself in Azerbaijan… The American diplomat's statement regarding the possibility of an «Azerbaijani Maidan» should be considered together with the previous speech of James Warlick, the U.S. Co-Chair of the Minsk Group on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The speech took place May 7 at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. The ideas expressed by Warlick – and he unambiguously suggested retuning the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the situation at the end of the 1980s – was received very frostily in Yerevan…