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Afghanistan and its Future (III)

Washington does not exclude that the repetition of Syria scenario caused by NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan may result in strategic advantage to meet its interests. Controlled chaos is a tried and true method. A would-be war in Afghanistan will enable the Americans to control the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China, maintain instability in the vicinity of Iranian borders and exacerbate the relations between India and Pakistan. Finally, the United States will maintain a springboard to exert pressure on Central Asia. Since 2014 Afghanistan is to become a major security problem for Russia...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 09.10.2013


 

Is Central Asia Ripe for Regime Change? (I)

The persisting speculations regarding political succession in Uzbekistan, the incipient trends of unrest in Azerbaijan in recent months as the country lurches toward a crucial presidential election, growing volatility of the situation in Afghanistan – what surges to the mind is the great Middle Eastern upheaval known as the «Arab Spring.» Are we nearing a «tipping point» in Central Asia?..

Melkulangara BHADRAKUMAR | 09.04.2013


 

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: Rising Menace

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) has become a concern in Eurasian region...  As northern Afghanistan borders Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, it has become convenient for IMU to use porous borders and play havoc in Central Asia. Its cousins in Central Asia like Jundullah (soldiers of Allah) have recently been active in countries like Kazakhstan. Like IMU, the Jundullah has its base in border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan...

Aurobinda MAHAPATRA | 04.02.2013


 

CSTO, Uzbekistan and Integration of Eurasia

The last month of the passing year was full of events related to the process of former USSR integration. Uzbekistan has finally left the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a body steady on the way to becoming a full-fledged defensive alliance (otherwise the very term «collective security» would lose its meaning). The Eurasian Economic Community’s existence is nearing its end to give place to the Eurasian Economic Union by 2015...

Aleksandr SHUSTOV | 25.12.2012


 

US Plan for a Base in Uzbekistan to Materialize?

...No doubt, Moscow would be confronted with a situation calling for a  tougher than ever strategy if the Operative Reaction Center – a US military base to stay indefinitely in the post-Soviet space regarding which Russia has serious ambitions - pops up in Uzbekistan. Picking up after several makeshift bases narrowly geared to supply the Western coalition in Afghanistan, the facility would come as a slap in the face to Moscow, a humiliation comparable to what Washington would have experienced seeing Russia install a military base in Mexico, Nicaragua, or Cuba...

Aleksandr SHUSTOV | 27.08.2012


 

Uzbek-Tajik Relations at a New Low

The permanently tense Uzbek-Tajik relations sank to a new low in November 2011 – January 2012... There is firm belief in Dushanbe that the rail blockade imposed by Tashkent on Tajikistan came as a response to the intensification of construction of the Rogun Dam... At the moment, Uzbekistan seems to regard the Rogun project as the key threat to its national security as the dam has a potential to reduce the availability of water resources downstream the Amu Darya...

Aleksandr SHUSTOV | 31.01.2012


 

Washington Set to Tailor Central Asia

The US design is to draw Uzbekistan and Tajikistan out of the orbit of the rest of the post-Soviet Central Asia and to bracket the two republics with Afghanistan and Pakistan within a new geopolitical formation hosting something akin to another Silky Way. Some of the key infrastructures of the route, particularly, the Mazar-e-Sharif – Termez railroad, are already in place...

Aleksandr SHUSTOV | 01.11.2011


 

Libyan Scenario for Central Asia?

Russian general staff chief Gen. N. Makarov warned at a media briefing in Moscow on September 12 that revolutions patterned on the Libyan one can recur in Central Asia... Lack of direct access to Central Asia from the traditional NATO responsibility zone would put serious obstacles in the way of an intervention comparable to the one recently launched against Libya. At the moment the transit routes used to supply NATO bases in Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan are entirely dependent on Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan...

Aleksandr SHUSTOV | 19.09.2011




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OUR COLUMNIST
    Valentin KATASONOV

Reasons for Hryvnia’s Collapse

By the end of «black Wednesday», Feb. 25, the Ukrainian currency exchange rate went down to 33 hryvnias to the dollar and never bounced back. It also plummeted as low as 50-60 hryvnias at the black market to stay there. The official rate was around 15 hryvnias to the dollar in mid-February... In general, the reason for the currency collapse is the economic crisis transforming into a national disaster. Ukrainian Prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has acknowledged recently that the economy dropped 20 % in 2014... According to the recently published forecasts, the GDP is to fall by 5, 5 % in 2015. The yearly inflation is estimated to be 25-26%. The crisis has also spread to banks...

02.03.2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
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