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Nikolai BOBKIN

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Afghan Insurgency Spreading North

Afghanistan comes to the fore of Central Asian agenda. The situation has greatly exacerbated in the northern Afghan provinces... Until recently it had been widely believed that the central authorities in Kabul were fighting the Taliban. Now a third belligerent emerged. Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser, Mohammad Hanif Atmar, has said that the presence of Daesh, or the Islamic State, is growing. According to him, the group plans to seize control of Central Asia and then move to Russia. The efforts to fight the Islamic State in Afghanistan are not enough to counter the threat...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 28.05.2015


 

War in Afghanistan Comes Close to Tajikistan Border

...The civil war in Afghanistan has approached the Tajikistan border. The fighting takes place in Imam Sahib District where the Taliban holds its position on the shore of Panj River... The fighting is moving from south to north. The Taliban forces control about 80% of Badakhshan province located near the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region in eastern Tajikistan... Evidently all the Washington’s assurances about the stabilization of the situation in the country are groundless. The mission set 14 years ago before the US forces were deployed in Afghanistan has not been accomplished. No matter that, the operation Enduring Freedom has served as justification for bringing US troops near the borders of the Community of Independent States...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 19.05.2015


 

Obama Meets Arab Allies at Camp David to Address Middle East Security

...The White House continues to call Iran a state sponsoring terrorism, supporting the Syrian regime and violating human rights etc. Obama says the sanctions will be in force even if a nuclear deal is reached in case Iran does not change its reckless behavior. The US Middle East policy appears to be increasingly illogical and dangerous, including not Iran only but Israel as well... The progress on nuclear talks could become a factor of regional stabilization but the policy of Obama administration may turn it into a source of future conflicts.

Nikolai BOBKIN | 19.05.2015


 

First Month of War in Yemen

...Saudi Arabia cannot defeat the Houthis without having boots on the ground. The Saudi allies are not chomping at the bit for deploying ground forces in Yemen. Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates have no capability to conduct large-scale ground operations. A couple of battalions would not be enough. The first month of war in Yemen showed that these states have no wish to get further embroiled in the Yemeni conflict under the banner of Saudi Kingdom. Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan continue to watch the situation creep. They are in no rush to start a direct confrontation with Iran.

Nikolai BOBKIN | 28.04.2015


 

Ground Phase of Operation to Establish Control over Yemen Starts on Saudi Soil

...Saudi Arabia's King Salman on April 21 ordered the Saudi Arabian National Guard, widely regarded as the kingdom's best equipped military ground force, to take part in Riyadh's campaign against Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen... The National Guard is a separate military structure run by its own ministry. It will be responsible for control of border and Shia-populated areas. This is especially important because the Saudis started the ground phase of the operation on their own soil. Saudi Shiites have demonstrated to protest the intervention by Sunni regimes into Yemeni conflict...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 25.04.2015


 

US Responds to Escalation of Conflict in Yemen

The US expands its involvement into the events in Yemen... The USS Theodore Roosevelt - along with her escort ship, the USS Normandy, a guided-missile cruiser - left the Persian Gulf on April 19 route for the Arabian Sea, to help enforce the blockade. The ships will join the naval force including seven warships and three auxiliary vessels deployed in the Arabian Sea, the Aden Gulf and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Formally the mission is to ensure the vital shipping lanes in the region remain open and safe... The real purpose of naval blockade is to deny Iranian ships access to Yemeni ports and deprive the insurgent Houthis of aid coming from Iran...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 22.04.2015


 

Bahrain Risks to Follow Yemen

...The Crown Prince of Bahrain, Sheikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain, blasted U.S. foreign policy in an interview and warned that its «schizophrenia» will lead the Arab world to ally with Russia. Using unusually hostile language, al-Khalifa said American policy is «transient and reactive», and «America seems to suffer from schizophrenia when it deals with the Arab world. He said the US foreign policy depends on forthcoming election in two years and there is no long-term policy. He expressed doubts that that Arab states could rely on the West. Bahrain does not trust Obama and strives to get US Congress backing...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 21.04.2015


 

Iran, USA and Russia after Lausanne

Those who have recently said they expect a rapprochement between the United States and Iran will probably be frustrated. The founder of the Republic of Iran ayatollah Khomeini warned that the day American hypocrites will support the Islamic revolution the country may declare a period of mourning. The Iran’s supreme spiritual leader ayatollah Khamenei believes that Iran may change its tactics but the fundamental principles of the 1979 revolution must be left intact. Tehran shows no intent to get close to the United States...

Nikolai BOBKIN | 10.04.2015


 

Saudi Arabia May Stop Being US Major Regional Ally

Riyadh is dissatisfied with the United States’ Middle East policy. The US stand on Iran’s nuclear program and the looming normalization of relations between Washington and Tehran are the main apples of discord. Iran is the main Saudi Arabia’s rival for influence in the Persian Gulf and the whole Middle East. The kingdom is the leading US satellite in the Arab world. All of a sudden it faces the possibility of losing its position... With a settlement reached on nuclear program and sanctions lifted, Iran may become a more attractive partner in the eyes of Americans.

Nikolai BOBKIN | 08.04.2015


 

Talks on Iran Nuclear Program Result in Framework Agreement

...The concept of US exceptionalism has become obsolete.  The negotiation process in Lausanne showed that the US has no resources to maintain the world supremacy. America should learn to treat others as equal. Until now the US Iran policy boiled down to only one thing – the change of regime. It’s not clear what is in store for the deal reached in Lausanne. There may be surprises ahead. The main thing is not to let the victory euphoria carry the Iranians away and make them forget about caution. Iran is accustomed to live under sanctions. Will it resist the temptation to become an American friend? It would be a dubious undertaking. US senators have warned Tehran that the decisions of current President cannot be taken for granted. 

Nikolai BOBKIN | 04.04.2015




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OUR COLUMNIST
    Vladislav GULEVICH

West Incites Tensions on Dniester Shores

Bucharest and Chisinau have announced their intention to form a joint military unit... Ukrainian and Polish military are also expected to join the formation... The peacekeeping mission has been carried out in the region by Russian peacekeeping forces for more than 20 years... The plan to push Russian peacekeepers out from Transnistria is being implemented... In pursuit of its geopolitical aspirations the West uses to its advantage the conflict still smothering in Ukraine...

27.05.2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
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